According to Outlook For Energy: A View to 2040, an ExxonMobil publication, diesel will surpass gasoline as the number one global transportation fuel by 2020. While automakers continue to look for ways to improve light-duty vehicle fuel economy, diesel engines are becoming more and more prevalent, even in the U.S. The growth in commercial transportation activity, which has been notoriously popular in Europe for decades, will also increase diesel demand over the next few years.
As stated in the report, diesel demand account for 70 percent of the growth in demand for all transportation fuels through 2040. As the largest subsector, heavy-duty vehicles will see the greatest growth, up 65 percent, and will account for 40 percent of all transportation demand by 2040.
Helping increase its market share significantly, ExxonMobil expects that hybrid vehicles’ cost will decrease around 2025. ExxonMobil also expects that by 2040, full hybrid vehicles will make up 40 percent of the fleet while electric and plug-in hybrids will be around 5 percent of the fleet. In addition, the report stated that by 2040, new cars globally will average around 47 mpg on the US cycle, compared to about 27 mpg currently. It is expected that natural gas will account for 4 percent of the global transportation fuel mix in 2040, up from today’s 1 percent.